Race for Governor Tightening: Michaud Leads LePage by 0.3% in Latest Polls

Maine's second district congressman leads the incumbent governor by less than half of one percentage point in a summary of the latest polls of likely voters across the state.

In the latest round of polling released this week and aggregated by Real Clear Politics, Democratic Congressman Mike Michaud leads Republican Governor Paul LePage by three-tenths of one percentage point, 39.3% to 39.0%. Independent Eliot Cutler trails in third place with an average of 16.3%.

These latest numbers are averages of the three most recent polls conducted in Maine. On September 4, Rasmussen Reports put Michaud up by 4 points after surveying 750 likely voters. On September 25, the Portland Press Herald found Michaud to be up by 2 points after polling 482 likely voters. On September 29, Pan Atlantic SMS conducted a poll of 400 likely voters that put LePage up by 5 percentage points.

Real Clear Politics' average of these three polls, with special weight given to the size of the sample (number of voters polled), estimates that Congressman Michaud is up by less than one-half of one point as of the beginning of October.

All of these polls were conducted before Maine's gubernatorial debates began. On Wednesday morning, all three candidates met for a debate in southern Maine, hosted by the Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce. This morning, all three candidates participated in a second debate at Thomas College in Waterville.

Political observers have noted that Eliot Cutler seems to be in a similar position to where he was at this point in the 2010 race, currently polling at about 15%. In 2010, Cutler dramatically surged in the final days of the race, and lost to LePage by about 1.8 percentage points, 38.3% to 36.49%.